Here is my latest thoughts regarding the system this weekend, and highlight, what I think, could be for a more favorable threat for snow early next week.
First off, there is still time and likely will be an adjustment to the models over the next 2 days once this system comes ashore along the West Coast. But given the overall pattern and the trends in the models, I think the threat area has shifted.
In my post last night, I highlighted how the trough in the Northeast is playing a big role in the shape of the overall flow. This is allowing for a predominantly northwest flow over the eastern United States. Because of this pattern, the shortwave/system, is not able to strengthen enough to turn northward.
Regardless of the track of the surface low, this will be an expansive system because of the jet dynamics at play. The question becomes, how far north can the area of snow extend north? That question will remain until this system moves inland.
Because of the aforementioned reasons, I have shifted the snow threat area further south. Again, it’s possible for some light snow to extend up to interstate 70, but the bulk of the accumulating snow looks to occur across south-west Indiana through Kentucky.
Is it still early? Yes. But the deep trough in the Northeast is why I have shifted this area south. It doesn’t look there is room for this system to shift northward. Also, the constant southward progression in every single model cycle played a part in this shift.
NEXT WEEK:
For those that missed out on this system there looks to be, what I think is a more favorable short for snow north of the Ohio River come Monday-Tuesday. This setup is different for the reason of having a deepening trough in the upper Midwest allowing energy to pivot around this deepening trough.
This is highlighted in the ensembles (shown below) which are showing a deviation from normal and a cluster of low pressure centers across Ohio/Indiana. Still early, but this looks like a more favorable setup for a threat for snow further north.
Winter is not over yet!
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